宁波市经济发展的环境效应研究

Study on Environmental Effects of Economic Development of Ningbo

运用SPSS19.0、ArcGIS等工具分析宁波市2002~2013年经济发展和环境质量统计数据,验证宁波市及辖区经济发展的环境库兹涅茨曲线（EKC）,分析县域环境污染的空间相关性,检视其经济发展在时间序列和空间序列的环境效应。结果表明：①市域工业“三废”的排放水平基本符合EKC的倒“U”模型,部分县的个别指标拟合结果为正“N”型或倒“N”型。②宁波市及各县环境质量水平均滞后于经济发展水平,整体EKC拟合曲线拐点比EKC模型理论拐点的来临晚4~5年。③宁波市县域环境污染在空间分布上存在明显的正自相关关系,表现出相似值之间的空间集聚,在研究县域污染问题时的环境空间效应亦不容忽视。最后提出通过发挥技术和结构效应、完善市场和政府调控机制、变革环境规制,促使经济与环境协同演化。

Based on Ningbo 2002 ~ 2013 economic development and the main environmental quality statistics, SPSS19.0 and ArcGIS software are used to verify the environmental Kuznets curve（EKC） of Ningbo city and its economic development, spa- tial correlation of county environmental pollution, the environmental effects of its economic development in time series and space series are examined. Results show that：① the whole of Ningbo ＂three wastes＂ emissions levels are in line with EKC in- verted ＂U＂ model,the fitting results of the individual index in some counties are ＂N＂ type or inverted ＂N＂ type. ②Ningbo city and county environmental quality levels are lagging behind the level of economic development, the overall EKC fitting curve inflection point is later than the EKC model theory inflection point of arrival late 4 -5 year. ③There is obvious positive correlation between the spatial distribution of the county environmental pollution in Ningbo city,showing the spatial clustering of similar values. Finally, exerting technology and structure effect, perfecting market and government regulation mechanism, and reforming environment regulation are proposed to promote the coordinated evolution of economy and environment.