水电工程突发事件应急响应效能Petri网仿真模型

Capability simulation model for emergency response of hydropower projects based on Petri nets theory

综合运用Petri网理论,提出系统效能分析的模型及方法优化水电工程突发事件应急响应流程及其响应能力。首先,抽象应急响应过程链,对事件应急响应流程进行过程建模,然后,利用Petri网与马尔可夫链同构特性,确定应急响应流程系统可能出现的状态集,构建同构的马尔可夫链。最后,通过仿真计算得到突发事件应急响应流程中各环节库所平均标记数、变迁利用率及平均执行时间等效能指标并进行分析。以雅砻江流域某水电工程突发事件应急响应流程为例,仿真计算并分析响应系统主要效能指标,结果表明:应将协助公共应急响应过程、应急系统总结评审和应急后期环节作为处理相对耗时的关键,并采取措施着重改善,能为应急管理层提高整个系统的运行效率提供参考。

In order to optimize hydropower projects＇ emergency processes and evaluate emergency response capability, the models and methods of system performance analysis have been proposed according to the theory of Petri nets. First, the model of events in emergency processes was established by abstracting the emergency response process chains. Then, based on the isomorphic characteristics between Petri nets and Markov chains, the state set that may arise in the emergency response system was set up, and thus isomorphic Markov chains could be developed. Finally, the performance analysis of the emergency response system could be made by calculating the average number of markers in various places in different linkage systems, the utilization of transitions and average execution time and so on. A hydropower project in the Yalong River was taken as an example, the analysis results of performance index show that some measures should be taken to improve the relatively time-consuming process of the public assistance emergency response procedures, and summarize the evaluation of emergency systems and post- emergency links, which can provide a reference for the emergency management to improve the operation efficiency of the entire system.