中国金融发展与产业结构升级协整关系的多指标交叉检验

Multi-index Crosscheck of the Co-integration Relationship between Financial Development and Industrial Structure Upgrading in China

采用我国1990-2014年金融发展和产业升级相关数据,通过多指标的交叉协整检验方法对中国金融发展(戈氏指标和麦氏指标)与产业结构升级(产业结构优化和就业结构优化)之间的关系进行分析,结果显示:第一,从长期来看,我国的金融发展与产业结构升级之间的相对弹性存在长期稳定关系,无论是金融发展的"戈氏指标"还是"麦氏指标"都对产业结构优化率及就业结构优化率具有正向的敏感性;第二,在剔除物价因素后,金融发展对产业升级的影响更具真实性,一国的金融发展对就业结构的影响程度或者敏感性远远大于其对产业结构的影响;第三,从短期来看,无论是选择金融相关率还是麦氏货币指标衡量产业结构优化,都具有正的相对弹性,即短期内,两者都具敏感性,并以不同的调整力度把非均衡状态调整到均衡状态。最后,提出了相关政策建议。

Based on the data from 1990 to 2014,the paper analyzes the relationship between financial development（FIR and MI）and upgrading of industrial structure（industrial structure optimization and employment structure optimization）in China by means of multi-index crosscheck.The results show that,firstly,the relative elastivity of relationship between domestic financial development and upgrading of industrial structure is in long-term stabilization,and both FIR and MI of financial development present positive sensitiveness to optimization rate of industrial structure and employment structure.Secondly,on inflation-adjusted basis,the effect that financial development exerted on industrial upgrading shows better facticity,and the influence degree or sensitiveness of employment structure suffered from financial development outdistances those effects of industry structures.Thirdly,on short terms,both financial interrelation ratio and MI are sensitive to measure industrial structure optimization,which transform nonequilibrium into equilibrium states in quite different ways.Finally,we propose several policies and suggestions.