中国历史时期重大疫灾时空分布规律及其与气候变化关系

Spetiotemporal distribution of significant epidemic disaster and its relation to climate change during historical period in China

通过对历史时期重大疫灾资料的搜集、整理和分析,利用最小二乘法、小波分析、M-K检验等方法,对灾害发生频次、时空分布及其与气候变化的关系进行了研究。结果表明:我国历史上重大疫灾频发,在770BC-1911AD年间,共发生355次,平均每7.6a发生一次,且1580年以后显著增多。重大疫灾呈现波动上升趋势,阶段性特征明显,经历了频次较少—波动增加—频次平缓—快速增加四个阶段。第1个活跃期在东汉末年到魏晋时期,元朝以来,其发生的频次越来越高,明清小冰期时期形成第2个活跃期。重大疫灾演化过程中存在3a,12a和24a共3个明显的周期,主周期为24a。重大疫灾空间差异明显,以浙江、湖北、河南、江苏为高频中心的长江中下游和黄河中下游地区最多。

Based on collection, reorganization and analysis of the historical documents about significant epidemic disasters in historical period, and the methods of least squares, wavelet analysis and Mann - Kendall test, the occurring frequency, spatiotemporal distribution and their correlations with climate change were analyzed. The results show that, historically China is a country with high significant epidemic frequency which occurred 355 times during 770BC to 1911AD, almost once every 7.6 years on average, and increased significantly after 1580. The significant epidemic disaster presents the fluctuant rising trend and phasic characteristics, which had experienced four stages of less frequency - fluctuant increase - gentle frequency -rapid increase. Late Eastern Han and Wei, Jin was the first significant epidemic activity period, while the high frequency periods of significant epidemic occurred from Yuan Dynasty, and the ＂little ice age＂ of the Ming and Qing Dynasties formed the second significant epidemic activity period. Wavelet analysis showed that, there were 3 significant epidemic cycles： 3a, 12a and 24a, and the main cycle was 24a. The significant epidemic disaster varied distinctly at spatial scale, and the most frequent occurring places were middle -lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the Yellow River, especially in the Zhejiang, Hubei, Henan and Jiangsu Provinces.