考虑气象因素的冬季取暖负荷计算

Calculation of Heating Load in Winter Considering Meteorological Factors

通过研究气象与冬季取暖负荷的关系,在负荷标幺化方法的基础上研究了冬季日最大负荷随综合平均气温变化的灵敏度,建立了冬季取暖负荷模型。该方法有效消除了经济波动、拉闸限电等不确定因素的影响,并可直观地看出广西冬季气温每降1℃时电网增加的负荷量。利用该方法分析了2008—2013年广西电网的冬季取暖负荷,其结果为广西电网制定冬季高峰时段负荷调控政策及措施提供科学依据。

In this paper,the relationship between meteo-rology and heating load is studied,and then the load sensitivity of the maximum load to the integrated average temperature in winter is calculated based on the scaling load method. Finally,a heating load model for winter is built,and this method can effectively eliminate the influence of uncertainties such as economic fluctuation,power rationing etc. and at the same time it can intuitively indicate the increase of power load in winter in Guangxi with each degree drop of the temperature. By using this method,the air conditioning load of Guangxi Power Grid in winter from 2008 to 2013 is analyzed to provide the scientific basis for power load regulation policies and measures in peak hours in winter in Guangxi.