目的地旅游安全度评价及时空格局——基于全国31个省会城市的统计数据

The Assessment of Tourism Security and Its Temporal and Spatial Pattern in Tourism Destination Based on Statistical Data of 31 Cities

目的地日益频发的旅游安全事件,增加了旅游安全风险,目的地旅游安全度衡量亟待学术关注和理论回应。本研究基于生态系统健康理论,建构并验证了目的地旅游安全度评价模型,使用2003-2013年全国31个城市目的地统计数据,测算了旅游安全度指数,并分析了时空格局,结果显示:第一,整体上,全国31个城市目的地旅游安全度存在差异,部分城市旅游安全度在2003-2013年间表现出明显波动特征,但旅游安全度呈现出增强态势。第二,2003-2013年海口市旅游安全度指数均较高,北京旅游安全度指数整体上呈增长态势。第三,郑州、广州、重庆3个城市旅游安全度指数在2003-2013年间,均处于较低水平,但是上述3个城市旅游安全度指数在缓慢提升。研究进一步探讨认为目的地要增强抵抗力,最大限度地规避或减少风险入侵,促进目的地旅游系统安全健康运行。

Increasingly frequent tourism security incidents add tourism risks to tourism destination, tourism security assessment issues need to give scientific theory to explain. This study attempts to use the theory of ecosystem health, construct and confirm the tourism safety evaluation model of tourism destination. By collecting respectively diachronic statistical data, this paper estimates the tourism safety index and analyses the pattern of temporal and spatial. The Results show that： first, on the whole, the 31 city＇s tourism destination safety differences, part of the city＇s tourism safety showed obvious fluctuation characteristics between 2003 and 2013, but tourism safety show enhanced situational. Second, 2003 -2013 Haikou tourism safety index is higher, the Beijing tourism safety index overall growth. Third, Zhengzhou, Guangzhou and Chongqing cities＇ tourism safety index between 2003 and 2013, are relatively low, but the tourism safety index in slow ascent. Further study, this paper believes that tourism destinations should enhance resistance, the maximum avoid and reduce the risk of invasion, and promote tourism destination system safety and health development.