财政政策对我国内外经济失衡的影响分析——基于联立方程模型

Analysis on Fiscal Policy's Impact on China's Internal and External Economic Imbalance:Based on the Empirical Research of Simultaneous Equation Model

财政政策作为宏观经济调控的基础性工具,在实现经济均衡过程中发挥着重要作用。通过对财政政策影响我国内外经济均衡作用机制的实证分析,得出我国财政收支政策对国内吸收水平的影响程度显著,对经常贸易的影响不显著;出口退税对经常项目的影响不显著,但对资本项目有正向影响。为促进内外经济均衡,我国应进一步优化财政政策,深化财税制度改革,具体包括构建公共财政体系、改善收入分配结构及推进出口退税改革等。

Internal and external economic imbalance is affected by many factors, especially the macro-eco-nomic policy. The paper makes analysis of the macro-policy＇s affection on China＇s economic imbalance,especially emphasis on fiscal policy, and in further, researches the effect of fiscal policy influencing eco-nomic balance by simultaneous equation model. The results show that： （1） China＇s fiscal policy has nota-ble effect on domestic absorption, but the impact level is low, and has a low effect on current account. （2）The export tax-rebate has little effect on current account but positive impact on capital account, which is conflict to traditional theory hypothesis. （3） The increase of GDP causes expansion of China^s absorption ability, and foreign GDP leads to domestic export expansion. Based on such conclusions, we put forward some policy suggestions on how to further optimize fiscal policy from constructing public fieical system,im- proving the redistribution structure and reforming the export tax-rebate.