沥青路面结构可靠度的研究进展及展望

Research Progress and Future Development for Reliability of Asphalt Pavement Structure

为了明确沥青路面结构可靠度理论的研究现状,对沥青路面结构可靠度概率分析模型、不确定性影响因素、可靠度计算方法以及结构可靠度研究热点等方面的研究进展进行了综述,对比分析了各国沥青路面结构概率分析模型,探讨了设计和施工过程中的不确定性因素,归纳了路面结构可靠度计算方法,最后论述了沥青路面结构可靠度的发展方向。综合分析表明:一次二阶矩法可以满足沥青路面结构可靠度的计算要求;当前沥青路面结构可靠度研究在设计指标、极限状态和概率分析模型等方面还存在不足,需要从时变可靠度、体系可靠度、随机可靠度等方面进一步深入研究;建议开展基于可靠度的结构鲁棒性和冗余性分析。

To clarify the status quo of structural reliability research in asphalt pavement field,the research advances on the following topics were reviewed,including probability analysis models for reliability of asphalt pavement structure,uncertainty factors,reliability calculation methods,as well as the research focuses for structural reliability.The existing probability analysis models of asphalt pavement structure were comparatively analyzed,the uncertainty factors in design and construction stage were discussed,and the reliability calculation methods were summarized.Finally,the development directions for structural reliability of asphalt pavement were discussed.The results show that the first order second moment method can meet the precision requirement for the reliability calculation of asphalt pavement structure.There exist some shortcomings in the reliability research for asphalt pavement structure,such as the reliability design indexes,limit states and the probability analysis models.Further research should be conducted from the following aspects,including time-dependent reliability,system reliability and random reliability.Furthermore,the robust and redundancy analysis should be developed based on the structure reliability.