Essen卒中风险评分量表联合CTA评分对短暂性脑缺血发作患者脑梗死的预测价值

Prognostic value of Essen stroke risk score combining with CT angiography for cerebral infarction of patients with transient ischemic attact

目的 探讨Essen卒中风险评分量表（ESRS）联合CTA评分对TIA患者脑梗死的预测价值。方法 对262例TIA患者进行ESRS及头颅CTA检查,并随访1年。采用ROC曲线评估ESRS与ESRS联合CTA评分对TIA后1年发生脑梗死风险预测价值。结果 ESRS预测脑梗死风险的ROC曲线下面积为0.701（95%CI：0.627-0.774,P〈0.05）;当评分为2.5时,其灵敏度和特异度之和最大。ESRS联合CTA评分预测脑梗死风险的ROC曲线下面积为0.773（95%CI：0.710-0.836,P〈0.05）;当评分为3.5时,其灵敏度和特异度之和最大。结论 ESRS及ESRS联合CTA评分对TIA患者1年后发生脑梗死风险具有预测价值,且后者的准确性更高。

Objective To explore the predictie value of Essen stroke risk score （ESRS） combining with CTA for cerebral infarction of patients with TIA. Methods The ESRS and CT angiography examination were checked in 262 TIA patients. Patients were periodically followed during the year after TIA. ROC curve was used to analyze the accuracy of prediction about the risk of cerebral infarction during the year after TIA according to ESRS and ESRS combining with CTA. Results The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0. 701 （95% CI： 0. 627 - 0.774, P 〈 0. 05） by ESRS predicted the risk of cerebral infarction after TIA. The sensitivity and specificity was the maximum when the interception points of the ESRS in 2. 5. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0. 773 （95% CI： O. 710- 0. 836, P 〈 0. 05 ） by the ESRS and ESRS combining with CTA. The sensitivity and specificity was the maximum when the interception points of the new score in 3.5. Conclusion The ESRS and ESRS combining with CTA have a predictive value to the risk of cerebral infarction during one year after TIA. and the later has a hi-her accuracy.