基于事故因果连锁理论的群体性踩踏事故成因分析及预防——以上海外滩风景区踩踏事件为例

Cause Analysis on the Group Stampede and Its Prevention Based on Accident Causation Sequence Theory——A case study of stampede at the Bund

基于海因里希和弗兰克·博德的事故因果连锁理论,以城市开放式景区群体性踩踏事件为研究对象,重点分析了上海外滩风景区踩踏事件的经过、成因,研究结果发现:成拱现象、异向群集、异质群集、设施的不安全设计是产生踩踏事件危害的直接原因,而管理失误则是根本原因。提出了城市开放式景区避免群体性踩踏事件危害产生的措施与策略,以期对开放式景区的安全管理产生一定的积极作用。

Based on W. H. Heinrich and Frank Bird＇s accident causation sequence theory and taking stampedes in open urban tourist sites as study object, this articlemakes a key analysis on course and cause of the stampede at the Bund. The study finds outsome immediate causes, includingarching phenomenon, crowd pedestrian from different directions and of different speeds, and the unsafe design on facilities. However,management faultis the fundamental cause. In the end, the article proposes eight strategies to prevent stampede in open urban tourist sites, which aims to bring positive effect on the safety management.