高速交通网络时空结构的阶段性演进及理论模型--以江苏省高速公路交通流网络为例

Evolutionary stages and theoretical model of high-speed traffic network spatio-temporal structure:A case study of expressway traffic flow network in Jiangsu province

高速交通网络作为地区社会经济联系空间结构塑造的显著力量,具有关键指征作用。在江苏省内高速公路交通流网络2004年1月-2012年12月连续时空尺度上的三维动态OD数据支撑下,引入非负张量分解的时空分析方法,对高速公路交通流网络阶段性演进特征和时空结构分析基础上,尝试提炼其理论模型。结论如下:1江苏省高速公路交通流网络时间结构具有明显的三阶段特征,分别为2004年1月-2005年4月、2005年5月-2008年6月和2008年7月-2012年12月,对应的空间结构由倒"T"字型向倒"下"字型,再向倒"不"字型演变。2阶段性演进是整体演化过程的重要组成部分,在长尺度上表现为趋势的分段而在小尺度上则为波动结构变化,江苏省高速公路交通流网络现正处于网络提升充实阶段。3基于江苏省的实证,归纳演绎了一个由路网离散分布—局部网络建构—区域初步连通—区域发育成网—网络提升充实—网络一体化的6阶段理论模型。

High-speed traffic network, as a significant power in molding the spatial structure of regional interaction, has the key indications. In this paper, we constructed a three- dimension matrix of ＂Origin- Destination- Time＂ time- evolving network data, which consists of expressway traffic flow among 59 counties and time- evolving series from January 2004 to December 2012 in Jiangsu, a coastal province in China. Supported by the data, we introduce the Non- negative Tensor Factorization（NTF） method to analyze its evolutionary stages and spatio- temporal structure, and then attempt to extract the abstract theoretical model. The conclusions can be drawn as follows：（1） The temporal structure of Jiangsu expressway traffic flow network has three obvious evolutionary stages, namely, January 2004 to April 2005, May2005 to June 2008, and July 2008 to December 2012. The corresponding spatial structure in three stages are reversed ＂T＂ structure, revesed ＂ 下 ＂ structure and revesed ＂ 不 ＂ structure,respectively.（2） The stage evolution of high- speed traffic network has always been a key component of the whole spatio-temporal evolution process, which displays the tendency phase division in the long term and the fluctuant variations in the short term. In terms of the evolutionary stages of expressway traffic flow network, Jiangsu has entered the network promotion enrichment stage.（3） Based on the empirical study of Jiangsu’s experience, the evolution process theoretical model of expressway traffic flow network can be divided into six stages, i.e., the network scattered distribution stage, the local network construction stage, the regional preliminary connected stage, the network development into a net stage, the network promotion enrichment stage and the network integration stage.