世界石油市场再平衡:中国的机遇和挑战

Rebalance of the world oil market: opportunities and challenges for China

供需双重因素导致的世界石油市场结构性失衡,是本轮油价大幅回落的深层次原因。除了世界经济增长放缓、石油需求增长乏力外,供应过快增长是导致2014年以来世界石油市场结构性失衡日益严重的主要原因。基于对历次国际油价暴跌的动因以及未来石油市场实现再平衡的途径的分析,判断2016年下半年世界石油市场将逐渐开启再平衡模式,并提出石油行业要做好在低油价或更低油价环境下打持久战的准备。"十三五"时期是我国深化石油市场化改革的关键时期。一方面,要抓住资源供应相对宽松的有利时机,拓展获取石油资源的空间,缓解石油供应安全压力;利用外部市场炼油加工收益良好的时机,加快化解我国炼油过剩产能的问题;抓住石油市场再平衡的时间窗口,建立更加完善的现代石油市场体系;同时做强石油贸易,提升对国际石油市场的影响力。另一方面,也要对可能的挑战做好准备,包括:中东地区地缘政治局势动荡加剧,对石油供应安全构成严重威胁;石油上游勘探开发投资大幅减少,从长远看石油供应不足的风险增大;国际石油市场竞争加剧;油价低迷减缓新能源产业发展和清洁能源使用的步伐。

The overly unbalancing of world oil markets caused by the dual factors of supply and demand is the deep reason leading to this oil collapse. In addition to the slowing world economic growth and oil demand growth, the excessive growth of supply is the main cause of serious structural imbalances in the world oil market since 2014. Based on the reasons of intemational oil prices＇ slump and the oil market＇s rebalance in the future, it is expected that the global oil market rebalance will occur in the second half of 2016, oil industry should prepare for a protracted war under the low oil prices. The 13th Five Year Plan is the key period to deepen the reform of the oil market in China, on the one hand, oil industry should seize the favorable opportunity of eased resources supply, expand the oil resources channel, alleviate the pressure of the oil supply security; take chance fxom good retums of oil refining in the external market, to resolve the problem of excess capacity; seize the time window of oil market rebalance, to build a more perfect modem petroleum market system. Meantime, it should strengthen trade to improve the influence of the international petroleum market. On the other hand, oil industry should also prepare for possible challenges： geopolitical instability in the Middle East leads to a serious threat to the oil supply security; investment of upstream oil exploration and development was sharply reduced, which increased the risk of oil supply; international petroleum market competition has been intensified; new energy industry and clean energy development slowed down as the oil price downturn.