低油价下的全球原油供需趋势

Global crude oil supply and demand under low oil prices

全球原油供需基本面是国际油价波动的主要影响因素。目前,全球原油供需宽松致使油价持续低迷,而低油价将使全球原油产量和供给能力增长速度放缓,OPEC不减产、保份额政策可能松动,美国致密油生产的平衡成本价格受油价持续下行的挑战压力增大,巴西等国家的原油生产受资源国经济形势影响增长乏力,预计2016年世界原油产量增长约20万桶/日。预计2016年世界原油消费量将维持150万桶/日的低速增长,美国和中国增长缓慢,欧洲持续减少,印度等成为新的增长点。预计2016年底全球原油供需关系将重回供需紧平衡状态。

The fundamentals of global oil supply and demand are the main factors of intemational crude oil price fluctuations. Oversupply keeps the crude oil price low and the low price slows down the crude oil production and capacity growth. OPEC faces challenges to maintain the production target and share. The breakeven price of tight oil production in the US is under the high pressure. Some of the resource countries, such as Brazil, are unlikely implementing huge investment with the pool domestic economy. It is predicted the global crude oil production growth will be around 0.2 mmbbl/d in 2016, and the oil consumption maintains low growth of about 1.5 mmbbl/d. Demand growth of US and China will be still slow and the one of Europe will even decrease. India is likely to be the new growth point of oil consumption. It is expected that the oil supply and demand will retum to tight balance at the end of2016.