北京市室外空气疾病负担定量评估研究

Study on quantitative assessment of outdoor air diseases burden,Beijing city

目的定量评估北京市室外空气的疾病负担,为北京市相关决策制定提供参考依据。方法采用世界卫生组织(WHO)提供的综合疾病负担定量评估模型[1],收集2005~2010年北京市室外大气PM 10浓度数据,年总人群死亡数、肺癌死亡人数,计算北京市室外空气短期暴露、长期暴露的疾病负担。结果北京市因室外空气长短期暴露导致全人群死亡约每年6 608人;因室外空气长期暴露导致的肺癌死亡约每年1 951人;如果北京市PM10控制到理想浓度50μg/m3,PM2.5控制到的理想浓度25μg/m3,北京市因室外空气短期暴露每年可减少死亡约4 159人,因长期暴露每年可减少肺癌死亡人数约657人。结论北京市室外空气导致较重的疾病负担,需大力加强大气污染治理,尽快将颗粒物控制到WHO推荐的理想浓度。

Objective To quantitatively assess the outdoor air diseases burden in Bei^ing citY,SO as to provide basis for relative policy making. Methods The outdoor air diseases burden model supplied by WHO was used. Data of concentra- tion for PM 10,PM2.5 in Beijing outdoor air and quantity of total death and death caused by lung cancer from ：2005 to 2010 were collected to assess the short and long period of outdoor air disease burdem Results A total of 6 608 deaths per year were caused by short period of outdoor air exposure. A total of 1 951 deaths due tO lung cancer per year were caused by long period of outdoor air exposure. If concentration for PM 10,PM2.5 in Beijing outdoor air could be reduced to 50 μg/m3 and 25 μg/m3 respectively,the total deaths and deaths caused by lung cancer would be reduced to 4 159 and 657. Conclusion The outdoor air in Beijing city leads to heavier disease burden,it is necessary to vigorously strengthen the air pollution control, so as to control the concentration of particulate matter to the desired level recommended by WHO.