华南地区龙眼寒害灾损风险评估

Assessment on the yield loss risk of longan caused by cold damage in South China

基于华南地区64个基本气象站1961—2012年逐日气象资料,采用公认的龙眼寒害灾害指标,结合农业气象灾害风险研究的方法与模拟技术,并考虑龙眼寒害灾损减产风险在不同生育期(花芽生理期、花芽形态分化期、休眠期)之间的差别,对1961—2012年华南地区龙眼不同发育时段的寒害灾损最大风险进行定量评估与分析.结果表明:在花芽生理期,各地区龙眼受灾最严重的是轻度寒害,其次为重度寒害,最后为中度寒害;不同寒害致灾等级对各地龙眼造成的危害程度不同,在轻度寒害威胁下,龙眼受灾轻重次序为福建、广东和海南、广西,中度寒害威胁下,龙眼受灾轻重次序为海南、广东和广西、福建,重度寒害威胁下,龙眼受灾轻重次序为海南、广东和广西、福建.在花芽形态分化期,各地区龙眼受灾最严重的是轻度寒害,其次为重度寒害,最后为中度寒害;该时段内不同寒害致灾等级对各地龙眼造成的危害程度相似,龙眼受灾轻重次序均为海南、广东和广西、福建.在休眠期,各地区龙眼寒害受灾最严重的是轻度寒害,其次为重度寒害,最后为中度寒害;该时段内不同寒害致灾等级对各地龙眼造成的危害程度不完全相同,轻度和重度寒害威胁下,各地龙眼受灾轻重次序为海南、广东和广西、福建,中度寒害威胁下,海南和广西龙眼受灾最轻,其次为广东,福建受灾最严重.同一寒害致灾等级下,不同发育时段龙眼寒害灾损减产最大风险指数差异显著:轻度寒害威胁下,各地区龙眼在花芽生理期受到危害最重,其次为花芽形态分化期,休眠期危害最轻;中度和重度寒害威胁下,各地区龙眼在花芽生理期受到危害最重,其次为休眠期,花芽形态分化期危害最轻.

Using daily climate variables gathered from 64 meteorological stations in South China from 1961 to 2012, recognized hazard indicators about disaster grades of cold damage for longan, and methods on agricultural meteorological disasters risk and simulation technology, the yield loss risks of longan caused by cold damage in South China during different developmental periods were assessed. The results showed that during the period of physiologic differentiation of flower bud, the disasters of longan affected by mild cold damage severe cold damage and moderate cold damage. grades varied. In particular, under mild cold in South China were the most common, followed by The hazards caused by cold damage under different damage, light disaster of longan was found in Fujian, followed by Guangdong and Hainan, and Guangxi was serious. Under moderate cold damage, disaster of longan was found in Hainan, followed by Guangdong and Guangxi, and Fujian was light serious. Under severe cold damage, light disaster of longan was found in Hainan, followed by Guangdong and Guangxi, Fujian was serious. During the period of morphologic differentiation of flower bud, the disasters of longan affected by mild cold damage in South China were the most common, followed by severe cold damage and moderate cold damage, while the disasters of longan under mild, moderate and severe cold damages within this period were similar. Specifically, light disasters of longan were all found in Hainan, followed by Guangdong, Guangxi and Fujian. During the period of dormancy, the disaster of longan affected by mild cold damage in South China was the most common, followed by severe cold damage and moderate cold damage. Under mild and severe cold dam- age, light disaster of longan was found in Fujian, followed by Guangdong and Hainan, and Guangxi was serious. However, under moderate cold damage , light disaster of longan was found in Hainan and Guangxi, followed by Guangdong, and Fujian was serious. At the same level of hazard, the largest risk indices of yield loss of longan during different developmental stages significantly differed. Under mild cold damage, serious disasters of longan were found in the period of physiologic differentiation of flower bud, followed by the period of morphologic differentiation of flower bud and the period of dormancy. However, under moderate and severe cold damage, serious disasters of longan were found in the period of physiologic differentiation of flower bud, followed by the period of dormancy and the period of morphologic differentiation of flower bud.