基于决策需求的非常规突发事件应急方案生成方法

Emergency plan generation method of unconventional emergency events based on decision-making demand

在"情景-应对"决策模式下,依据案例推理技术的应急决策模型,通过对非常规突发事件现场决策需求分析,确定了应急决策的内容并对决策内容的表示、决策效能评价和决策方案修正进行了研究,最终实现了针对目标情景的应急方案生成。以大连"7·16"爆炸火灾事故为例对基于决策需求的非常规突发事件应急方案生成方法进行实证分析,实例研究表明:该方法生成的应急方案针对性强,可满足现场不同层级决策要求,为不同决策主体提供准确的、有针对性的应急方案。

Under the ＂scene-response＂ decision model, scene de- cision demands of unconventional emergency events are first an- alyzed based on case-based reasoning. Then emergency decision details and their expression methods are determined, and emer- gency plans are amended according to expertise and access to the knowledge rule base. Finally, emergency plans aiming at the target scene are generated. For illustration and verification purposes, Dalian ＂7·16＂ fire explosion accident is presented. The results obtained demonstrate that the proposed emergency plan generation method can meet decision requirements of the different levels and fully supply the pertinence emergency plan for different decision-makers.