城市低碳发展水平的组合评价研究——以江苏13城市为例

Combined Evaluation on the Level of City Low-Carbon Development: Taking 13 Cities in Jiangsu Province as Examples

为克服单一评价方法的不足,文章构建了低碳城市发展的组合评价模型:首先,选择因子分析法、熵值法、Topsis法三种单一客观赋权评价方法作为组合评价模型的基础;其次,运用Kendall一致性系数进行事前相容检验;再次,建立了平均值法、Borda法、Copeland法三种组合评价模型,并且使用Kendall协同检验进行事前检验;最后,运用Spearman等级相关系数进行了事后一致性检验。运用此组合评价模型并结合江苏13城市数据进行了实证分析,研究结果表明:单一评价方法得到的结果不尽相同,但具有较为明显的协调一致性;经过组合得到的评价结果整体排名比较稳定,组合评价方法和原始的单一评价方法之间存在显著的关联性;从各区域来看,苏南、苏中、苏北城市的低碳发展大致呈现出"南高北低"的区域分布特征;平均值法得到的组合排序结果和原始单一评价方法关联性最强,可以作为测度江苏低碳城市发展水平的参考,最终的评价结果排序依次为:苏州、无锡、常州、南京、扬州、南通、盐城、泰州、镇江、徐州、淮安、宿迁。

In order to overcome the shortcomings of the single evaluation method, a combined evaluation model for low- carbon city development is established in this essay. Firstly, it chooses the single objective weight evaluation method, which includes factor analysis, the entropy method and TOPSIS method, as the basis of combination evaluation model. Secondly, it applies the mean value method, Borda method and Copeland method to set up three kinds of combination evaluation models respectively. And it uses the Kendall consistency coefficient test to do the ante test. Thirdly, Spearman rank correlation is carried out to examine the consistency of the combined method. This new measure is then applied to a case study of the level of city low-carbon development evaluation on 13 cities in Jiangsu Province. The outcomes indicate that the results from using single evaluation methods are different but they have obvious consistency. And the results are stable from applying the combine method, the correlation between the combination evaluation method and the original single evaluation method is significant. From the regional perspective, the low-carbon city development of the south area, the middle area and the north area of Jiangsu has a regional distribution characteristic of higher in the north and lower in the south. The result from using the mean method could be better, which is more relevant to the original ones than others. The final evaluation on the level of city low-carbon development results by descending order are Suzhou, Wuxi, Changzhou, Nanjing, Yangzhou, Nantong, Yancheng, Taizhou, Zhenjiang, Xuzhou, Huaian, and Suqian.