浙江省对外贸易发展与环境污染的EKC曲线分析

EKC Curve Analysis of Foreign Trade Development and Environmental Pollution in Zhejiang Province

在已有的倒＂U＂型EKC曲线分析的理论基础上,选取了2000~2013年浙江省进出口总值与二氧化硫、烟尘排放量的时间序列数据并用计量分析方法进行实证分析,发现在5%的显著性水平下,进出口总值与二氧化硫排放量存在协整关系,在此基础上构建环境库兹涅兹曲线方程并分析浙江省对外贸易发展水平与环境污染之间的关系,通过格兰杰因果关系检验,发现进出口总值是二氧化硫排放量的格兰杰原因。通过分析回归方程,发现浙江省在环境库兹涅兹曲线上所处位置,并提出相应的政策措施,以保证经济平稳持续发展的同时缓解和降低环境压力。

This article selected the time series data of gross volume in Zhejiang Province from 2000 to 2013 and carryied out empirical of import and export, sulfur dioxide and soot emissions analysis by econometric methods. The paper found that under the significance level of 5%, there is a counteraction relationship between gross volume of import and export and Sulfur dioxide emissions. Than we built environment Kuznets curve equation and analyzed the relationship between foreign trade and the environmental pollution in Zhejiang Province. Through the granger causality test, we find the gross volume of import and export is the granger reason of sulfur dioxide emissions. The author tries to analyze regression equation to judgment the location of Zhejiang Province on the EKC curve, and then puts forward corresponding policies and measures to ensure economic steady sustainable development, to ease and reduce the environmental pressure at the same time. Key words： environmental pollution; EKC; economic development; cointegration