居民预期、微观决策与房地产调控——基于OLG模型的局部均衡分析

Expectation,Micro Decisions and Real Estate Regulation:Partial Equilibrium Analysis Based on OLG Model

通过构建居民房地产需求的世交迭代模型,分析居民收入增加预期与房地产价格上涨预期使房地产价格不断上涨的微观作用机制。在此基础上,借助比较静态分析研究"预期调控"、"按揭率"和"房产税"等房地产调控政策在不同情形下的适用性。理论模型分析结果显示,最为有效的房地产需求调控政策依赖于居民对房地产价格增长的预期,而非一成不变。进一步利用面板数据回归对理论模型推演结果进行实证检验,发现年轻人口增长因素、收入因素以及成本因素显著,支持了理论模型的分析结论。

This paper constructed an OLG model in which housing demand is driven by special attributes of real estate, real income rising expectation and house price rising expectation. Then we researched the paths and mechanism of these factors playing the role in price increase of real estate in china. In various situations, we studied the impact of different real estate regulation policies （such as ＂expectation control＂, ＂mortgage rate＂, ＂property tax＂） through the comparative static a- nalysis. We found that the most effective real estate demand control policy is not immutable and frozen. We must take different regulation measures in different situations which mostly are based on house price rising expectation. Finally, this paper empirically tested the theoretical model by panel data model.