产业结构、电价水平对我国电力强度的非线性作用机制

The Nonlinear Mechanism of Impact from Industrial Structure and Electricity Price to China's Electricity Intensity

基于改进的Solow生产函数与面板门限回归模型测算了中国30个省(自治区、直辖市)的电价扭曲程度,分析了不同扭曲程度下各省优化产业结构、调节电价水平对降低电力强度的不同程度作用。结果表明,我国各省区终端电价普遍偏离最优边际价格,且近几年负向扭曲程度均未发生明显改变。经济欠发达地区终端能源消费结构和第三产业内部结构失衡。受电价扭曲影响,我国各省区优化产业结构和调节电价水平对降低电力强度存在显著的非线性作用机制。在电价扭曲系数较小时,优化产业结构不利于降低区域电力强度;随着电价扭曲系数逐渐增大,优化产业结构对降低当地电力强度的作用也变得更强。电价扭曲程度越高,调节电价对降低区域电力强度效果越好,且调节电价带来的电力强度抑制效果优于调节产业结构。资本深化程度与城市化水平对电力强度分别具有不同程度的抑制、激励作用。我国科技研发投资反而在较小程度上提高了电力强度。

Based on modified Solow production function and panel threshold regression model, we calculated the electricity price distortions of 30 cities or province in China. Meanwhile, we ana- lyzed the different effects in 30 provinces from optimizing economic structure and adjusting electrici- ty price to reducing electricity intensity in different degrees of distortion. It shows that terminal prices of 30 provinces generally departs from the optimal marginal price. The reversed distortion in recent years did not change significantly. Terminal energy structure and inner structure of tertiary industry in economic less-developed areas are unbalanced. Influenced by the distortion, there is a significant non--linear mechanism from optimizing economic structure and adjusting electricity price to reducing electricity intensity in states or province in China. When the distortion is less, optimi- zing the industrial structure weights against reducing the intensity of electric power. As electricity price distortion increases, the effect from optimizing economic structure to reducing electricity in- tensity becomes stronger. The more distortion it has, the more effect to reduce the intensity of elec- tric power it has. The effect of adjusting electricity price to reduce the intensity of electric power is better than optimizing economic structure. Capital deepening restrains electricity intensity, while urbanization level enhances electricity intensity. Meanwhile, the efficiency of investment in R＆D improved regional electricity intensity tinily. Based on the results of the empirical analysis, we pro- vided the corresponding policy recommendations.