我国通货膨胀的代际福利成本差异——基于36个城市微观数据的实证分析

Differences of Intergenerational Welfare Costs between Working and Retirement Group under the Impact of China's Inflation——Based on the data analysis of 36 cities

基于36个城市的1 223份问卷调查数据和与之相匹配的地市级宏观经济数据,以居民幸福感为社会福利成本度量衡,实证评估我国通货膨胀的代际间福利成本差异。研究发现,通货膨胀每上升1个百分点导致在职居民的幸福感下降约1.08%、退休居民的幸福感下降约为1.66%,而这一福利损失对于两个居民群体而言分别需要GDP增长率相应上升3.37个百分点和4.36个百分点才能弥补;在适应性预期条件下,预期型通货膨胀每上升1%所导致的在职居民和退休居民的幸福感分别下降约1.01%和0.60%,可知预期型通货膨胀对在职居民的负影响大于对退休居民的负影响;同时,预期型通货膨胀与非预期型通货膨胀对居民幸福感的影响存在显著差异,而与通货膨胀对居民幸福感的影响并没有太大差异。

This paper, using residents＇ well-being as social welfare cost of measures and with the 1223 questionnaires survey data and the cities ＇ macroeconomic data, empirically assesses the inter- generational welfare cost, which is influenced by China＇s inflation, between working group and re- tirement group. We find that 1% rise of the inflation of China will results in about 1.08% decline of the happiness of working group and about 1.66% decline of the happiness of retirement group, and the corresponding welfare losses for each group need 3.37% and 4.36% of GDP growth to off- set respectively. Further, under the condition of adaptive expectations, we find that every 1% rise of expected inflation will bring the decline of happiness by about 1. 01% and 0. 6% of working group and retirement group respectively. At the Same time, we find that expected inflation and no- expected inflation have significantly different effects on the residents＇happiness.