江苏省1999-2012年城市化与生态环境协调发展性研究

Research on the coordinated development of urbanization and ecological environment in Jiangsu Province(1999-2012)

运用主成分分析、曲线回归和协调发展度模型方法,从人口、经济、社会、空间方面选取15个城市化指标,从生态环境压力、生态环境水平、生态环境建设方面选取13个生态环境指标,构建城市化与生态环境发展水平的评价指标体系,定量研究1999-2012年江苏省城市化与生态环境的协调发展性。结果表明,1999-2012年间,江苏省城市化与生态环境综合指数随时间变化而发生波动;只有在一定城市化水平下(综合指数大于0.200),城市化发展才会带动生态环境质量改善;而城市化与生态环境的协调发展性存在时间段上的差异,在1999-2004年处于失调状态,之后经济发展方式逐渐合理,协调发展指数大幅度上升,2010-2012年处于优质协调发展状态。

Utilizing principal component analysis,curvilinear regression and coordinated development degree model,we investigated the coordinated development of urbanization and ecological environment in Jiangsu Province （1999-2012）. To establish the evaluation index system of urbanization and ecological environment development, we selected 15 indicators from the aspects of population, economy, society and space, and 13 indicators from the aspects of ecologic environment pressure, ecologic environment level and ecologic environment construction. The results show that （1）the comprehensive index of urbanization and ecological environment in Jiangsu Province was changing over the periods from 1999 to 2012; （2）the improvement of ecologic environment quality was driven by urbanization only under a certain level when the comprehensive index exceeds 0.200; （3）the coordinated development of urbanization and ecological environment showed discrepancy with time. It＇s on the status of disorder during the periods of 1999-2004. When the economic development gradually became reason- able, the coordinated development index jumped sharply and turned to the status of high quality during 2010- 2012.