货币政策应对失业问题的有效性研究:基于欧元区的经验

Evidence on the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Unemployment in the Euro Area

欧洲中央银行自2015年起着手实施规模为1.1万亿欧元的量化宽松政策,一直持续到2016年9月,为期18个月。欧元区货币政策的转变会在多大程度上影响各成员国的失业状况?为回答上述问题,本文采用1995—2014年欧元区11个成员国的时间序列数据进行回归分析。结果表明,对于大多数成员国,利率对失业率的影响显著,并且存在时滞效应。降低利率有利于缓解失业问题,然而,卢森堡和西班牙的失业水平不受利率的显著影响,可能源于传导机制的失灵。

Since 2015, the European Central Bank has launched 1.1-trillion-euro quantitative easing program, until the September in 2016. Will changes on monetary policy affect the unemployment level in the euro area？ In order to answer the question, this paper, based on time series data from 1995 to 2014, makes regression analyses for 11 members in the euro zone. It shows that, for most countries, interest rates have a significant effect on the unemployment and have the time lag. Interest rate cuts will relieve its unemployment problems; however, there is no significant relationship between interest rates and unemployment in Luxembourg and Spain due to the weak transmission mechanism.