广西进出口贸易对经济增长影响的协整分析

Co-integration Analysis of Import-Export Trade's Influence on Economic Growth in Guangxi

自中国东盟自由贸易区和广西环北部湾经济区开发以来,广西经济与进出口贸易得到快速发展。为探讨它们长期、内部的关系,选取了1995~2013年广西GDP、进口及出口总额的年度数据,通过ADF检验、E-G格兰杰因果检验、协整检验和误差修正模型（ECM）等方法,对广西经济增长与进口、出口进行协整分析,建立误差修正模型。结果表明：三者间具有长期均衡的稳定关系和短期波动的动态关系;进口和出口贸易均能促进广西经济增长,但进口促进作用更明显。为推动广西进出口发展和经济增长,应注重创新,利用地理优势实现与东盟各国贸易共羸。

Economic development and import and export trades grow rapidly in Guangxi as China ASEAN Free Trade Area and Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone was established. In order to probe into the relation between economic growth and import＆ export trade development,a co-integration analysis is made by an error correction model which is based on the statistics of Guangxi GDP,total import and export volume（ 1995-2013）. This model is set up by using ADF unit root test,Granger causality test,Co-integration,error correction mode（ ECM） methods. The results show that economic growth has a long-term stable co-integration relationship with import and export trade development. Both import trade and export trade facilitate economic growth,though the former serves as a bigger drive. Besides,some advices on accelerating economic growth and import ＆ export trade development are proposed in this paper.