安徽省农业旱灾风险评估与区划

Assessment and Regionalization of Agricultural Drought Disasters in Anhui Province

为客观分析农业旱灾对安徽农作物造成的风险损失,根据安徽省1991—2012年的农业灾情数据和农作物播种面积等数据资料,对安徽省农业旱灾风险进行了评估区划。结果显示:旱灾是安徽省主要的农业自然灾害,22年间安徽省旱灾占农业自然灾害受灾面积和成灾面积的比例分别为42.1%和40.1%;安徽省各市受灾面积和成灾面积的变化具有很强的同步性;安徽省农业旱灾呈现出风险发生周期短、频率高的特点,旱灾受灾面积一般不超过60%,该指数下风险概率为357.1年一遇;从旱灾风险时空分布看,淮北和江淮地区旱灾风险较高。

To analyze the risk loss of agricultural crops caused by drought, agricultural drought risk in AnhuiProvince was assessed and regionalized based on data of agricultural disaster and crop sowing area from 1991 to 2012. The results showed that drought was the main agricultural natural disaster in Anhui Province. In the22 years, drought accounted for 42.1% and 40.1% of agricultural natural disaster affected area and disasterarea, respectively. In the cities of Anhui Province, the changes of affected area and disaster area had strongsynchronization. Agricultural drought in Anhui Province had short period and high frequency. The droughtaffected area was generally not more than 60%, and the risk probability was once in 357.1 years. According tothe spatial and temporal distribution of the drought risk, Huaibei area and Jianghuai area had higher droughtrisk than other areas.