土地政策与中国经济波动——基于土地供应量的视角

Land Policy and Chinese Economic Fluctuation:A Perspective from Land Supply

研究目的:研究土地政策——内生土地供应量和抵押土地使用权获得贷款——与中国经济波动的联系。研究方法:DSGE模型和量化分析方法。研究结果:(1)在具有中国特色的土地政策下,土地供应量与投资、产出的波动呈现逆周期特征,土地抵押贷款呈现顺周期特征;(2)地方政府有能力一方面保证土地出让的稳定收入,弥补抵押贷款部分的波动,另一方面通过内生土地出让面积缓解周期波动带来的不利影响;(3)如果地方政府利用土地政策,那么中国经济1—2年即可从危机中复苏过来;反之,中国经济在历经5年之后都无法恢复至原先水平。研究结论:在土地政策的作用下,中国经济较西方国家更能有效地抵御金融危机。因此,土地政策是中国政府极具特色的宏观调控手段。

The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between the Chinese land policy and economic fluctuation. There are two kinds of land policy of local government, i.e. land sales （in area） and land collateral mortgages. Methods employed are DSGE model and quantitative analysis. The results indicate that 1 ）the land sales （in area） are counter-cyclical, while the land collateral mortgages are pro-cyclical; 2）on the one hand, local government have ability to ensure the land sales income to offset land collateral mortgages fluctuation; on the other hand, it can relief the negative effect of cyclical fluctuation by land sales （in area）; 3 ）Chinese economy can be recovered at least one year or at most two years if land policy is implemented. However, it can＇t recover until five years without land policy. It is concluded that China is able to withstand financial crisis more efficiently by using land policy. Therefore, Land policy is a typical macro- control method for Chinese government.