能源价格上涨对居民消费的影响——基于CGE模型

长期以来我国通过对能源价格的管制,使我国经济的增长建立在高耗能、低效率的经济结构之上,但是这种粗放型的增长模式难以为继。通过构建2010年宏观和微观SAM表,利用CGE模型模拟了各类能源价格上涨对我国居民消费的影响,结果表明各类能源价格上涨对居民消费的影响不同,并且政府对二次能源价格的管控在一定程度上减弱了一次能源价格上涨对居民消费的冲击。因此,在能源价格市场化下,应尽快采取提高能源利用效率、实行阶梯定价和建立基于效率和公平的能源补贴机制等措施,为我国能源市场化改革提供稳定的环境。

Due to the controls on energy prices in our country for a long time, China＇s economic growth is based on an economic structure of high energy consumption and low efficiency. But this extensive growth pattern is unsustainable. This paper builds the 2010 macro and micro SAM tables, uses the CGE model to simulate the influences of various types of energy price rises on the consumption of residents in our country. The conclusion shows that different energy price rises in differ- ent situations have different impacts, and the governmental regulation on the secondary energy price lessens the impacts of the primary energy price rise to some extent. Therefore, in the marketization of energy price, the government should adopt the countermeasures to improve the energy utilization efficiency, implement differential pricing and establish the efficient and fair energy subsidy mechanism as to provide our energy marketization reform with a stable environment.