基于改进费雪方程式对货币供给、虚拟经济与实体经济之间关系的研究

Research on the Relationship of Money Supply, Fictitious Economy and Real Economy Based on the Modified Fisher Equation

虚拟经济的迅速发展需要大量货币,而经典的费雪方程式没有考虑虚拟经济的货币需求。本文提出,货币供给应等于实体经济和虚拟经济的货币需求之和,并在此基础上改进了费雪方程式。以中国2008年10月至2014年7月的月度数据为实证基础,利用VAR模型研究货币供给、虚拟经济与实体经济三者之间的动态关系,发现虚拟经济对通货膨胀的影响超过了货币供给,货币供给增加对股市和房地产市场等虚拟经济的拉动作用早于对实体经济的影响。央行制定货币政策时除了关注物价稳定、经济增长等实体经济目标外,还应关注虚拟经济市场的量价波动对实体经济的影响。

The rapid development of fictitious economy absorbs a huge quantity of money, while the classi- cal Fisher Equation ignores money demand of fictitious economic transaction. This paper modifies the Fisher Equation on the basis that money supply multiplied by the velocity of currency equals the sum of fictitious economic transaction size and real economic transaction. Based on the Chinese monthly data from 2008 October to 2014 July, we use a VAR model to verify the dynamic relationship of money supply, fictitious economy and real economy. It is found that the impact on real economy of fictitious economy exceeds the money supply, and the response of fictitious economy, especially the real estate market, to monetary shocks is earlier than real economy. The real estate market stimulation policies will arise an increase of fictitious econ- omy as well as real economy in the short term. According to the modified Fisher Equation, the central bank should pay more attention to the trading volume and price of fictitious economic assets.