城镇居民住房资产财富效应研究

The Housing Asset Wealth Effect of China's Urban Residents

利用往年的季度数据,通过建立测度模型对城镇居民住房资产财富效应进行实证检验。研究结果显示:房价变动不仅与住房的实际居住需求有关,还受到货币政策、财政政策、国内外宏观经济形势等因素的影响。经济相对发达地区的房价水平较高,重点城市是过度投资和投机者将房地产作为社会性财富标志相对集中的地区。城镇居民住房资产财富效应呈现明显的区域结构差异,经济发达的沿海地区城镇居民住房资产财富效应相对比较显著,而经济发展水平相对较低的西部地区和东北地区城镇居民住房资产财富效应并不显著。这是由于房地产市场发展程度、住房自有率高低、金融市场自由化程度、房地产市场投机程度以及人们对待房地产财富的观念等方面的差异所导致。

In order to reveal the wealth effect of urban residents in housing assets, the measuring model was set up by the quarter data ofChina＇s 30 cities from 2003 to 2012. The conclusion indicates that the price changing of house has not only been related with the actual housing needs, but also affected by monetarypolicy, fiscal policy, domestic macroeconomic situation and other factors. Higher price level lies in relatively developed regions. Major cities are the places which over-investment and real estate speculators treat the real estate as the symbol of social wealth. Urban housing wealth effect showed significant regional structural dif- ferences. Wealth effect of urban housing is relatively significant in the economically developed coastal area, and the wealth effect was not significant in western and northeast regions which had a lower developmental level. This is due to the degree of development of the real estate market, the degree of financial market liber- alization, homeownership rate, and the degree o fdifference in the real estate market, real estate speculation and the attitude of people to the concept of wealth.