贸易引力模型下人民币汇率波动对贸易量的影响——基于中国与东盟6国贸易的实证研究

The Effects of RMB Exchange Rate Volatility on Trade Volume Under the Trade Gravity Model——Based on An Empirical Study of the Trade between China and Six Countries of ASEAN

随着经济全球化的不断加深,金融全球化已成为经济全球化的重要组成部分,特别是人民币汇率问题和贸易问题的争论已经引起了学术界的广泛关注。中国与东盟贸易的定量分析中运用到贸易引力模型,利用2005~2014年的面板数据建立了包括人均GDP、贸易距离等基本变量的贸易引力模型。并在此基础上增加了人民币对东盟6国的加权汇率这一变量,得到扩展的贸易引力模型。然后运用得到的模型来评价在人民币全球化背景下人民币汇率波动对东盟各国贸易量的影响情况。

With the deepening of economic globalization,the financial globalization which is of its important part,and especially the controversial issue of RMB exchange rate and trade,have caused widespread concern in academic circles. This article applies the trade gravity model to the quantitative analysis of trade between China and ASEAN,using the panel data of 2005~2014 to establish a gravity model of trade which the basic variables include per capita GDP,trade distance,and so on. On this basis,an increase of RMB against the six countries of ASEAN weighted exchange rate of the variable is added to expand the trade gravity model. Then the resulting model is used to evaluate the effects of RMB exchange rate fluctuation to the trade volume of ASEAN countries under the background of RMB globalization.