基于贝叶斯网络的防空预警监视系统作战效能评估

Combat Effectiveness Evaluation of Air Defense Early Warning Surveillance System Based on Bayesian Network

当前防空预警监视系统作战效能评估已成为部队亟需解决的难点问题,为此,提出一种基于贝叶斯网络的防空预警监视系统效能评方法。首先,建立了防空预警监视作战效能的评估指标体系,并对指标进行了简要分析。然后,构建了贝叶斯网络模型,给出了先验概率和条件概率的确定方法,并给出了具体的评估步骤。最后,通过算例分析对提出的评估方法进行了验证。分析结果表明:提供的模型真实、有效,能够对防空预警监视系统的作战效能进行合理的评估。

At present, the combat effectiveness evaluation of air defense early warning surveillance system has been a difficult problem which need to be solved, so this paper puts forward an effectiveness evaluation method of air defense early warning surveillance sysytem based on Bayesian network. Firstly,the evaluation index system of air defense early warning surveillance combat effectiveness is set up,and the index is simply analyzed;then a Bayesian network model is built, and the methods to calculate the prior probability and the condition probability are given and the detailed evaluation steps are also listed; finally, the presented evaluation method is validated through example analysis. The analysis result shows that the proposed model is true and effective, can perform reasonable evaluation to the combat effectiveness of air defense early warning surveillance system.