一致性条件与荷兰赌论证

The Consistency Condition and the Dutch Book Argument

主观主义概率论者把概率看成私人的事情。概率即部分信念,而部分信念可以通过赌商来测定,概率的主观求值只受一致性条件约束,概率律就是一致性律。通过荷兰赌可以论证一个赌商集合不可能导致荷兰赌,当且仅当,这个赌商集合满足概率演算公理。因为概率演算规则被看作保证个人概率求值具有一致性的必要条件,所以依据荷兰赌论证,概率论的逻辑规律在主观主义的观点中被严格确立,主观概率理论具有了科学的主观基础。

Scholars who advocate subjective probability considered probability as a personal matter.Probability is partial belief,then partial belief could be measured by the betting quotient,and the subjective evaluation of probability could only be constrained by the condition of consistency,which reveals that the laws of probability are ones of consistency.Dutch Book Argument demonstrats that a set of gambling quotient could not lead to Dutch Book,if and only if,this set of gambling quotient accords with the axiom of the calculus of probabilities.Because the rules of the calculus of probability could be conceived as conditions necessary to ensure consistency among the evaluation of probability of individuals,according to arguing the Dutch Book Argument,the logical laws of the theory of probability can be rigorously established within the subjectivistic point of view and subjective probability theory is based on subjective basis of scientific.