县域尺度下东北地区粮食产量空间格局动态变化研究

Spatial-temporal dynamic change of grain production under county scale in Northeast

为揭示东北地区粮食产量空间异质性,基于GIS技术、ESDA和重心模型,深入研究2000—2012年县域尺度下东北地区粮食产量的空间布局时空特征以及重心移动轨迹。结果表明:(1)从时空格局特征来看,2000—2012年东北地区粮食平均产量呈递增趋势,并逐步向高产县和东北方向移动;粮食产量低于平均产量的县居多,但粮食高产县数量逐年增加;(2)县域粮食产量空间自相关显著且空间差异相对较大,粮食产量重心出现偏移,2000—2003年重心向西南方向偏移51.84°,2006—2012年粮食重心向东北方向移动,吉林省西南部、辽宁省中北部和黑龙江省西北部粮食总产量增加;2000—2012年东北地区粮食产量重心移动速率逐渐减小,粮食生产空间波动缓慢降低,粮食产量的优势区域趋向稳定,重心移动轨迹的变化使得粮食产量空间分布也发生明显改变。

In order to reveal the spatial heterogeneity of grain output in Northeast China, based on the GIS technology, ESDA and gravity center model, the spatial and temporal characteristics of grain production in Northeast China in 2000-2012 were studied. The results showed that, from the spatial-temporal pattern, the average grain yield showed an increasing trend and gradually moved to the high county and northeast direction from 2000 to 2012 in Northeast China; grain yield of the majority of county was lower than the average yield, but the number of county with high grain yield increased year by year. The county grain yield had significant spatial autocorrelation and the spatial difference was relatively large, the gravity of grain production showed devation, shifted to the southwest with 51.84 degrees from 2000 to 2003, the grain center moved to the northeast, southwest of Jilin Province, Liaoning Province, North Central and northwest of Heilongjiang Province from 2006 to 2012, the total grain output increased from 2000 to 2012. The gravity moving rate of Northeast grain output center gradually decreased, the space fluctuation of grain production decreased slowly, the dominant regiona of grain production tended to be the stable, the change of center of gravity movement made the spatial distribution of grain yield changed significantly.