基于森林灾害聚类分析的防灾救灾财政政策体系研究

Studies on Fiscal Policy System for Preventing and Relieving Forestry Disaster Based on the Cluster Analysis of Forest Damage Occurrence

文章以1991~2010年森林灾害数据为基础,研究我国森林火灾、林业有害生物的时空分布规律和特征,借助主成分分析对31省（市、自治区）森林火灾和有害生物发生情况进行综合评价,根据综合得分进行聚类分析。结果表明：我国森林年均火灾7258次,火场面积为20.59万hm2,年均成灾面积8.37万hm2;全国林业有害生物发生面积总计18452万hm2,年均922.61万hm2;火灾和有害生物年际变化波动较大,总体上呈现出上升的趋势。森林火灾综合评价显示,青海、宁夏、北京、天津、上海等地区森林火灾程度低,内蒙古、贵州、湖南、黑龙江等地区森林火灾十分严重;有害生物综合评价显示,上海、北京、天津、贵州、浙江等地区有害生物发生程度轻,辽宁、新疆、黑龙江、四川、内蒙古等地区林业有害生物发生情况都比较严重。结合森林灾害发生规律和基于灾害程度的聚类分析结果,从财政救灾分类管理、财政投资重点、灾后恢复重建、事权和支出责任、融资机制等方面构建了林业防灾救灾财政政策体系框架。

The temporal and spatial distributions of forest fires and pest occurrence were studied based on the data from 1991 to 2010. Then made the comprehensive evaluation on fire and pest occurrence in 31 province through PCA, and cluster analysis was conducted based on the comprehensive scores. Results showed that： Annual average fire time was 7258 and burned area 20.59 × 104hm2, annual average fire disastrous area was 8.37 × 104hm2; The national forest pest occurrence area was 18452x 104hm2 in total with an average of 922.61 × 104hm2; Fires and pest occurrence were both in upward trends with highly fluctuant change by year. In comprehensive evaluation on fire, Qinghai, Ningxia, Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai would suffer to a lesser degree. Inner Mongolia, Gulzhou, Hunan, Heilongjiang would have serious fire disasters; In comprehensive evaluation on pest occurrence, Shanghai, Beijing, Tianjin, Guizhou, Zhejiang would suffer to a lesser degree, Liaoning, Xinjiang, Heilongjiang, Sichuan, Inner Mongolia would have serious pest disasters. Finally, according to the research results on distribution and classifications, suggestions on classified management, investment focus, restoration and reconstruction, expenditure responsibility and financing mechanism were made to support financial policy system on forest disaster prevention and relief.