人民币实际汇率失调的经济增长效应研究

The Effect of RMB Real Exchange Rate Misalignment on China's Economic Growth

在开放经济环境下,汇率成为经济问题的核心变量。文章在行为均衡汇率模型下,选取2005年人民币汇率改革后的季度数据,对人民币均衡实际汇率的失调程度进行测算,实证分析实际汇率失调的经济增长效应。检验结果表明,人民币实际汇率在样本期内大部分时间偏离其均衡汇率轨迹,经历了一个均衡期、两个低估期和两个高估期;实际汇率失调对经济增长具有显著影响,短期内汇率低估促进经济增长,汇率高估不利于经济增长;较长期内的结论则相反。因此,保持符合经济发展实际的汇率水平应成为汇率政策的目标。

Exchange rate is a kernel variable in the open economic environment. By using the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate model, quarterly data after 2005 the exchange rate reform is used to measure the misalignment of RMB real exchange rate, and to analyze its impact on economic development. The results show that, the RMB real exchange rate deviates from equilibrium real exchange rate in most period, including one balanced period, two undervalued periods and two overvalued periods. This misalignment has a significant influence on economic development. In the short term, the underestimate is conducive to China＇s economy, and the overestimate is impediment for it. And in a long run, the conclusion is opposite. So, keeping in line with the actual economic development should be the target of exchange rate policy.