工业经济发展、环境规制强度与污染减排效果——基于“先污染,后治理”发展模式的理论分析与实证检验

Industrial Economic Development,Environmental Regulation Intensity and Emissions Reduction Effect:Theoretical Analysis and Empirical Test Based on Development Pattern of Treatment after Pollution

文章构建了"先污染,后治理"发展模式的理论模型,并以2001-2013年中国30个省区工业产出数据为样本,研究了工业经济发展、环境规制强度和污染物减排效果之间的关系。研究发现,工业污染物排放对于产出增长具有刺激作用,同时产出增长又会引起环境规制强度的增加,从而证明了中国工业存在"先污染,后治理"的发展模式。但由于环境规制投资依然不足,规制效率相对偏低,治理的整体效果仍不尽如人意。分阶段看,"先污染,后治理"发展模式在过去十余年没有发生本质变化,但2008年后环境规制的污染减排效果已经开始显现。分地区看,中国几乎所有地区都处于"先污染,后治理"的过程中,而环境规制的效果仅在东部地区较为显著。

This paper builds a theoretical model about development pattern of treatment after pollution,and takes industrial output data of 30 provinces from 2001 to 2013 as the sample to explore the relationship among industrial economic development, environmental regulation intensity and emissions reduction effect.The results show that the industrial pollutant emissions play a positive stimulation role in output growth, and the output growth also results in the increase in environmental regulation intensity, thereby proving the existence of development pattern of treatment after pollution in China.But the emissions reduction effect is still unsatisfactory as a whole owing to the insufficient environmental regulation investment and relatively low regulation efficiency.From a perspective of stage comparison, the development pattern of treatment after pollution does not change in essence in the past ten years, but the emissions reduction effectof environmental regulation has appeared gradually after 2008. From a perspective of regional comparison, almost the whole China is still in a process of＂treatment after pollution＂, and the effect of environmental regulation is also significant only in East China.