摘要
利用2011年11～12月份的北方某大型风电场实测风速与输出功率资料，对比分析若干风电场风速指标与总输出功率的对应关系及其精确度，结果表明根据风力机风功率曲线定义的场有效风速立方和能更精确拟合风电场总输出功率；且针对BJ-RUC模式场有效风速立方和的0～24h时效预报值探索其统计修订方法，使其平均绝对误差下降约25．4％，风电场总输出功率预报的平均绝对误差下降约22％。
Based on the measured wind speed and power output data in a large wind farm during November-December in 2011, the corresponding relationship and accuracy between wind speed index and total power output in several wind farms were compared and analyzed. The results show that total sum of cubed effective wind speed in wind field defined according to power curve of wind turbine can fit the total output power of wind farm. The statistical revised method is explored for 0-24 h aging forecast value of total sum of cubed effective wind speed in B J-RUC mode field, the mean absolute error decreases by approximately 25.4% and the mean absolute error of the total output power prediction of the wind farm reduces about 22%.
出处
《太阳能学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第2期310-315,共6页
Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica
基金
公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201206026)
江苏高校优势学科建设工程(PAPD)
关键词
风功率预测
数值预报
风速指标
误差
修订
wind power forecast
numerical prediction
wind speed indexes
error
revision
