国际贸易、要素禀赋与政体类型的变迁——一个基于阶级均势的分析框架

International Trade,Factor Endowments and the Change of Regime Type: An Analytical Framework Based on the Balance of Power Between Different Classes

冷战后,"经济全球化促进民主化"成为一个相当流行的观念。当前国际政治经济学和比较政治学的主流理论也认为,国际贸易会促进民主转型。但现实世界告诉我们,国际贸易可能促进民主转型,也可能推动威权巩固。在马克思、摩尔和罗戈夫斯基的理论基础上,我们构建了一个分析框架来说明国际贸易在什么条件下会促进民主转型,在什么条件下导致威权巩固。由于国际贸易的结果将有利于世界范围内要素价格的均等化,国际贸易对不同要素所有者和密集使用者的收入和财富带来不同的影响。随着贸易的开放,充裕要素的所有者和密集使用者将会运用他们增加了的收入和财富来更有效地克服集体行动的困境,从而积聚了更多的政治与组织资源。由于是否转向民主取决于阶级之间的权力对比,国际贸易带来的上述变化将会直接影响威权政体的走向,即威权政体向民主政体转型还是威权政体的巩固。这样,在不同的要素禀赋下国际贸易会对政体类型的变迁产生不同的影响:当劳动要素充裕时,国际贸易往往会促进民主转型;当土地要素充裕时,国际贸易往往会促进威权巩固。

After the Cold War,the idea that 'economic globalization promotes democracy' has become prevalent.The current mainstream theory in International Political Economy and Comparative Politics also admits that international trade contributes to democratic transition.However,in the real world,international trade not only promotes democratic transition,but also strengthens authoritarian consolidation as well.We construct an analytical framework based on the theory of Marx,Moore and Rogowski to explain when international trade will promote democratic transition and when international trade will promote authoritarian consolidation.International trade results in the equalization of factor prices,which has different effects on the incomes and fortunes of owners and intensive users of different factors.With the opening up of trade,the owners and intensive users of abundant factors gain from trade and make use of the increased income and fortune to overcome the dilemma of collective action,so that they accumulate more political and organizational resources.Because whether the regime transit to democracy depends on the balance of power between different classes,the changes caused by international trade mentioned above will directly affect the trend of authoritarian regime;transiting to democracy or consolidating the authoritarian.International trade will have different effects on the regime type under different factor endowments;when labor is abundant,international trade usually contributes to democratic transition;while when natural resources are abundant,international trade tends to promote authoritarian consolidation.