商业和平论：一个理论批评

The Commercial Peace Theory: A Critique

经济联系和经济依存是否会带来和平?古典自由主义国际关系理论的回答是肯定的,但是这些理论没有用规范的科学研究方法来证实这一结论。新自由主义影响下的当代西方商业和平论用定量的研究方法确认了经济依存与和平之间的正相关关系。但这些模型在建立过程中往往没有像古典自由主义理论那样坚持公平正义的原则,忽视了国与国之间的经济依存可能会对一国的社会和政治发展产生的消极影响,从而导致其估算存在偏差。作者使用新的模型和数据对加茨基模型进行了改进,并使用了混合研究方法(定性与定量方法相结合)来说明定量模型中缺失的因果机制。新的模型说明,当两国间资本流动量越大,发生国际冲突的可能性也越高。需要指出的是,这里的学术批评完全建立在加茨基模型的基础之上,通过对其内在模型的解构而建构出了新的理论模型并得到了截然相反的结论。中国学者可以采用这种学术批评方式参与中西方的理论争论,从而推动理论创新和发展。

Classic liberal IR theory suggests that economic interdependence brings international peace,but it fails to test this hypothesis with scientific research methods.Influenced by neo-liberalism,contemporary western commercial peace studies use quantitative methods to test the positive correlation between peace and economic interdependence. For example, Gartzke's capitalist theory finds that the possibility of interstate conflicts decreases when a state liberalizes its financial market. However,these quantitative models often ignore the just component which is emphasized in classic liberalism and overlook the fact that interdependence can bring negative externalities to the social and political development of a state; some quantitative models are mis-specified. This paper uses new data and more nuanced model to improve Gartzke's capitalist peace model. Mixed research method is also used to elaborate the causal mechanisms which are often missing in quantitative models. The new model shows that the probability of interstate conflicts increases is positively associated with increasing amount of capital flows between two states. The critique of the new model is based on the deconstruction and the reconstruction of an existing model in western IR. Meaningful academic debates between Western and Chinese IR studies can be achieved through this way,and thus contribute to knowledge accumulation and innovation.