广州人口空间均衡特征与经济关联研究初探

A preliminary study on the spatial equilibrium of Guangzhou's population and its relationship with economy

人口空间与经济空间的关联匹配性研究,是合理规划配置空间资源的依据之一.运用"六普"人口数据和相关统计年鉴数据,以广州行政区和街道为评价单元,采用人口地理集中度分析人口空间分布均衡特征;采用熵值法、敏感度分析和灰色预测模型GM(1,1),从人口和经济空间增长关联性、空间分布匹配性以及空间协调发展预测3个方面进行了广州市人口-经济空间关联的实证分析.研究表明:①广州市人口高度集中在中心城区,人口分布呈现明显的向心集聚性;②广州经济的持续高速发展对于人口聚集的吸引力强,而人口聚集效应对经济发展的贡献度高,但其内部空间存在程度差异:以南沙和番禺为典型代表,区域人口与经济空间增长不同步;以萝岗和越秀为典型代表,区域人口与经济空间分布不匹配;③预计到2015年和2020年,广州市各区人口-经济空间匹配度呈两种极化趋势发展.

Studying the correlation between population space and economic space is one of the basis of rational planning and allocation of space resources. The study applies the data of the sixth population census and other related statistical data, taking the administrative district and the street of Guangzhou as the evaluation unit, using the method of population geography concentration to analyze the spatial equilibrium of population firstly. And then the entropy method, sensitive analysis and grey prediction model GM （1, 1 ） are used to empirically analyze the population-economic spatial correlation of Guangzhou, which is carried out from three aspects： the matching between population and economic spatial distribution, the correlation of spatial growth and the forecast of space coordinated development. Studies show that： （1） The population of Guangzhou is very concentrated in central urban area and its distribution showed a significant center-accumulated situation. （2）The sustained and rapid development of Guangzhou＇s economy has a strong attraction for the population and the population aggregation has a high contribution to economic development, but there are some differences in the internal space： the regional population and economic spatial distribution is mismatching, whose typical representatives are Yuexiu and Luogang. The correlation of regional spatial growth is out of sync, whose typical representatives are Nansha and Panyu. （3）The regional population-economic spatial coordination degree will show two trends of polarization development in 2015 and 2020.