利用Z值模型评价我国医药上市公司财务状况的实证研究

Empirical Study on Financial Status of Listed Chinese Pharmaceutical Companies Evaluated by Using Zscore Model

目的:发现我国医药上市公司潜在的财务问题并提出应对措施。方法:使用Altman E建立的Z值模型,对我国1998-2013年的143家医药上市公司按不同子行业(医疗器械、医药商业、生物制品、化学原料药、传统中药)进行分类及实证分析,并进一步使用逐步回归方法验证年报中部分数据对Z值的影响。结果:1998-2013年,我国财务状况最好和最差的3家公司的平均Z值区间分布百分比分别为90.95%、47.96%、41.25%和0.80%、1.14%、1.21%;5个子行业中化学原料药行业的总体财务状况最差,2004-2006年该子行业财务陷入"危险"区域的企业构成比超过50.00%,分别为60.00%、55.20%、53.60%。在按自然年计年方法中,分别有10年的每股市价和9年的流通股数对Z值有显著影响(P<0.05);在按上市年计年中,有15年的每股市价对Z值有显著影响(P<0.05)。结论:尽管我国医药行业大部分企业的财务状况尚佳,但仍有部分企业存在财务问题,尤其是化学原料药行业的情况不应忽视。政府应当对股票价格给予更多关注,以防止股价泡沫导致财务危机。同时,政府应当建立用于评价医药上市公司乃至上市的所有企业的财务危机监管体系。

OBJECTIVE： To find out potential financial risk in the listed Chinese pharmaceutical companies and to provide recommendations. METHODS ： The Z-score established with Altman E was adopted to classiy and analyzed empirically 143 listed pharmaceutical companies in China during 1998-2013 by sub-sectors （medical devices, pharmaceutical commercial, biological products chemical raw medicine, traditional TCM）. The effects of some data in annual reports on Z-score were validated by using stepwise regression. RESULTS： The result showed that the average Z-score values percentage of the best 3 companies were 90.95% ,47.96% and 41.25 %, respectively, from 1998-2013 ; while for the worst 3 companies, the values were 0.80 %, 1.14 % and 1.21%, respectively. At the same time,the financial situations of chemical raw medicine companies were the worst among 5 subectors, of which during 2004-2006, the constituent ratios of companies in ＂Distress＂ zones went over 50.00% , which were 60.00% , 55.20% and 53.60%, respectively. If counted by calendar year, the market value per share of 10 years and float of 9 years significantly affected the Z-score values （P〈0.05） ; if counted by listed year,the market value per share of 15 years significantly affected the Z-score values. CONCLUSIONS： Although major pharmaceutical companies have good financial status, financial crisis still exists in some companies. Especially, the financial situations of chemical raw medicine companies should not be neglected. The government should pay more attention to share price in order to prevent financial crisis which was induced by stock bubbles; at the same time, supervision system should be established to evaluate the financial situation of listed pharmaceutical companies, even for all listed companies.