碳排放权交易下的班轮船队配置优化研究

Optimization of Liner Ship Fleet Mix Strategy under Emission Trading System

针对集装箱班轮运输企业建立考虑碳排放权交易机制的船队配置优化模型,以期实现船队营运成本最小化.采用几何布朗运动描述欧洲碳排放权交易价格的波动路径,以使决策根据变化的碳交易价格做出.收集班轮业营运数据设计案例,验证了模型能够应用于实例分析.算例结果显示,即使在近期较低的欧洲碳交易价格水平下,在集装箱班轮行业中实施碳交易机制仍能取得明显的减排效果,但企业也需付出一定的费用;针对燃油价格做敏感性分析得出,随着燃油价格的上升,碳交易机制对促进减排的效果也越加显著.

With the trend of imposing market-based mechanisms in shipping industry, this paper proposes an optimization model for liner ship fleet mix strategy under carbon emission trading system, which minimizes the total expected operational costs in multiple periods. The uncertain carbon emission allowance price is described by Geometric Brownian Motion. A numerical experiment with real industrial data is carried out to analyze optimized fleet mix strategy and carbon emission volume. Result shows that by involving liner companies into emission trading system, fleet carbon emissions can be reduced significantly, while companies need to pay for the allowances purchase. Another conclusion that based on sensitivity analysis of bunker prices shows： the impact of emission trading system on motivation to use energy-efficient ships and fleet carbon mitigation increases along with the rising of bunker price.