京沪线高铁与民航旅客出行选择行为研究

Passenger Choice Behavior of High-speed Rail and Airline between Beijing and Shanghai

随着高速铁路的快速建设,其已与民航构成了我国高速客运的主体,使交通运输方式的供给结构发生了巨大变化.本文通过对京沪线高铁与民航旅客进行SP和RP调查,分析京沪线客流的构成和旅客出行方式选择行为特征,并基于非集计理论,构建京沪线旅客出行选择的Binary Logit模型,量化各因素对旅客选择的影响程度,该模型准确率为88%.本文根据调查结果和模型标定参数,对旅客的性别、年龄、月收入、票价、同行人数、程前时间和出发时间对旅客出行选择行为的影响进行深入分析,结论对了解京沪线旅客实际出行需求状况,合理设计高铁与民航综合客运产品具有重要意义.

With the rapid construction of high-speed railway, it has constituted the main body of the high-speed passenger transportation with airline in China. It is causing the supply structure of the transportation mode changes greatly. Through the SP and RP survey on the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail and the civil aviation passenger, this paper analyzes the composition of passenger flow and their characteristics of travel mode choice behavior. Based on the disaggregate theory, a Binary Logit model for Beijing-Shanghai passenger choice behavior is developed. The impact of each factor on passenger choice behavior is quantified. The accuracy rate of the model is 88%. Based on the survey result and parameters calibrated in the model, the influence of gender, age, monthly income, ticket price, companion number, ingress time and departure time on the passenger choice behavior is analyzed thoroughly. The result is beneficial for grasping the condition of actual travel demand and designing the integrated transport passenger transportation product reasonably between Beijing and Shanghai.