再论全国森林资源年度出数方法

Rediscussion on Methods for Producing Annual National Estimates of Forest Resources

基于笔者2013年研究提出的全国森林资源年度出数方法,结合当前对国家"十二五"规划纲要目标进行评估的实际需求,再次研究提出2种改进的年度出数方法,即顺序平移出数和综合折中出数;同时,利用第五次全国森林资源清查以来的多次清查数据,对几种不同的年度出数方法进行了对比,并从时效性、稳定性和确定性等方面对其结果进行了分析。森林资源年度出数方法的优劣,需根据年度出数结果进行综合分析评估,在考虑数据时效性的同时还需兼顾年度数据与定期发布数据之间的衔接性。

To meet the needs of assessing the target completion of the National ＂Twelfth Five-Year＂ Pro- gram Outlines,two improved methods were presented in this study, based on the methods for producing annual national estimates of forest resources presented by the first author in 2013 ,which were ＂sequent- shifting ＂ method and ＂comprehensive compromise＂ method. Then, by using the main data of national for- est inventories （NFI）after the 5thNFI, the different methods were compared and analyzed for the timeli- ness, stability, and certainty of the national estimates. The advantages and disadvantages of the methods need to be evaluated based on a comprehensive analysis of the annual results. Especially, in considering the timeliness of the national estimates, it is necessary to take into account the harmony between the annu- al data and the published periodic data.