新能源汽车购买行为及其环境影响效果研究

Purchase Behavior of Alternative Fuel Vehicle and Its Environmental Impact Effect

为了考量新能源汽车的推广使用对环境的具体影响,对新能源汽车的购买行为和普及率进行了研究,同时分析新能源汽车在优惠政策条件下在实际路网中的环境影响。首先,对大连市居民进行了意向问卷调查,建立描述家庭新能源汽车购买行为的模型;然后,应用该模型对新能源汽车在大连市的普及率进行分析;最后,在道路收费优惠政策条件下,考虑新能源汽车的普及率和出行频率的变化,利用多用户交通平衡分配模型进行实例分析,探索新能源汽车在实际路网中的排放影响。结果表明,在低普及率情况下,新能源汽车的减排效果并不明显,而在高普及率情况下,减排效果比较显著。对于交通领域巨大的碳排放体量而言,低普及率带来的碳排放量下降的累积效应仍是非常可观的。

： In order to consider the specific impact of the use of alternative fuel vehicles on the environment, the purchase behavior and penetration ratio of alternative fuel vehicle （AFV） were studied and the environmental impact of AFV in the real network under preferential policy was analyzed. Firstly, a questionnaire survey was carried out in Dalian city, and models which depict household purchase behavior based on the questionnaire data were established. Then, the penetration rate of AFV in Dalian city was analyzed by applying the established models. Finally, under road preferential pricing policy, by conducting multi-class traffic assignment calculation which considered the change of penetration ratio and trip frequency of AFV, the impact of AFV on emissions in the real road network was explored. The results show that, the emission reduction effect of AFV is not obvious in the case of low penetration ratio while this effect is remarkable in the case of high penetration ratio. However, the cumulative effect of low carbon emissions which the low penetration rate of AFV brings is still very considerable for the huge amount of carbon emissions in the transport field.