长荡湖近61a降水量演化特征

THE EVOLUTION CHARACTERISTICS OF PRECIPITATION IN THE PAST 61 YEARS AT THE LAKE CHANGDANGHU

基于王母观站和溧阳站1953-2013a系列年降水量资料，采用Spearrnan和Mann-Kendall非参数统计检验、连续小波变换等技术手段，分析了61a来长荡湖年降水量的演变特征。结果表明，长荡湖多年平均降水量为1 1 15．1 1mm，年内降水量呈明显的季节性变化；年降水量总体呈减少趋势，但仍以正常年份居多，偏多与偏少年份相当；长荡湖湖区年降水量变化周期为9．5a；年降水量变化不存在突变。研究成果可为长荡湖湖区的洪水控制、水资源利用、水调度方案制订、应对气候变化提供科学依据。

Based on annual precipitation observation data from Wangmuguan and Liyang monitoring stations during the period of 1953 to 2013, the evolution of annual precipitation of Lake Changdanghu in the past 61 years was systematically analyzed by using the methods of Mann-Kendall and Sperman＇s test, wavelet transform and time series analysis. Results showed that the average annual precipitation is 1115.1 mm in this area. The precipitation presented obviously seasonal dynamics during the whole year. The annual precipitation showed downward trend, and the majority of rainfall occurred in a normal year, the rainy year was nearly the same as the drier year in the last 61 years in Lake Changdanghu. The main period of annual precipitation is 9.5 years at Lake Changdanghu. The conclusion from this paper provided important references for flood control, utilization of water resource, water regulation scheme development and climate change adoption for the Lake Changdanghu.