明清苏浙沿海台风风暴潮灾害序列重建与特征分析

RESEARCH ON SEQUENCE RECONSTRUCTION AND CHARACTERISTICS DIAGNOSIS OF TYPHOON STORM SURGES AFFECTING JIANGSU AND ZHEJIANG,AD1368-1911

在系统搜集、整理明清苏浙沿海潮灾记录基础上，建立风暴潮频率辨识方法，复原台风风暴潮灾害750次，据此建立逐年风暴潮频率序列。分析显示，1460～1480年、1570～1595年、1715-1745年、1785～1810年、1880～1890年为风暴潮活跃期。明清苏浙沿海风暴潮存在45a、25a、14a三种时间尺度周期，其中45a周期最为显著。气候跃变分析表明，1402年、1457年、1566年、1624年、1652年、1711年、1846年、1880年风暴潮活动趋于活跃：1444年、1477年、1543年、1634年、1799年、1856年风暴潮趋于平静。与1470年以来温度距平曲线对比显示，气候冷暖与风暴潮发生频率有一定正相关性，全球变暖背景下苏浙沿海可能面临更为严重的风暴潮威胁。苏浙地区明清时期风暴潮灾害空间分布差异明显，大部分风暴潮记载集中于长三角、杭州湾地区，苏北地区风暴潮数量少但影响范围广，浙东地区受地形和经济发展程度影响，风暴潮记载数量少且集中于滨海。

Storm surge wasthe most deadly natural disasters to low coastal areas. According to historical archives of MingQing Dynasty and the Republic of China, supplemented with contemporary extraction, 3789 notes which recorded tidedisasters occurred in Jiangsu and Zhejiang from 1368 to 1911 were collected. Using the direct and indirect evidences ofstorm surges, 2119 notes were sorted out. A method to reconstruct the frequency of storm surges was also establishedaccording to the time of records and adjacent relationship. Using this method and basing on these historical notes, in thisresearch 787 storm surges in Jiangsu and Zhejiang from 1368 to 1911 were reconstructed, and the temporal distributioncurve of the storm surges was analyzed. The result showed that： During the year of 1460-1480, 1570-1595, 1715-1745,1785-181 arid 1880-1890 storm surges were more frequent than average. During the year of 1390-1410, 1445-1465, 11480-1510, -545-1570, 1600-1630, 1680-1715 and 179-1825 storm surges were less frequent than average.Waveletanalysis showed that the sequence of storm surges has the main period of 45 years, 25 years and 14 years. The 45 yearswasthe most notable period, which decided the features of storm surges in the long tenn. Moving t-test demonstratedthat inthe year of 1402, 1444, 1477, 1566, 1624, 1634, 1711, 1799, 1846, 1856, 1875 and 1880, storm surge may experienceclimatic jump.Further analysis showed that in the year of 1402, 1457, 1566, 1624, 1652, 1711, 1846 and 1880, storm surgetended to be more active.In the year of 1444, 1477, 1543, 1634, 1799 and 1856, storm surge tended to be quiet. Comparisonbetween storm surges sequence and annual temperature departure showed that the number of storm surge was significantlycorrelated to temperature but the response of storm surges was hysteretic. This may indicated that in the context of globalwanning,the threat of storm surges in Jiangsu and Zhejiang wouldrise.The distribution of storm surges can be divided intofour regions, namely North Jiangsu, Yangtze River Delta, Hangzhou Bay and East Zhejiang. Most storm surgesconcentrated inYangtze River Delta and Hangzhou Bay, which was less in North Jiangsu and East Zhejiang. Influencescope of storm surge in North Jiangsu was quite vast, which only concentrated in seashore when it occurred in EastZhejiang. Storm surge can influence Liuhe along the Yangtze River and influence Taoyuan along the Huai River （the OldYellow River）.