我国社会保障支出的经济效应分析:1999-2013年

Analysis of the Correlation of Social Security Expenditure and Economic Development

社会保障的经济效应一直是社会保障理论与实证研究的核心问题,研究结论也各不相同。本文根据我国社会保障制度改革的时代背景,采用1999-2013年的数据,通过Granger因果检验和协整分析,研究我国社保支出与经济发展的动态关系。结果表明两者之间存在单向的因果关系,社保制度的改革与支出的增长,显著地促进了经济增长。据此结论,文章提出了加大财政投入、强化社保费征缴管理、扩大制度覆盖、优化支出结构、确保社保支出稳步增长等方面的政策建议。

The relationship between social security and economic growth has been the core issue of social security theory and empirical research, but the Conclusions varied. According to our country social security system reform background ,this article selects the 1999 -2010 data as samples,using co -integration analysis and Granger causality test, discussing the relationship between the social security expenditure and economic growth. The results show that there is an unidirectional causal relation between the social security expenditure and economic growth, the social security system reform and the growth of defray has promote the economic growth greatly, but economic growth is not the cause of social security expenditure growth. According to the conclusion, the article put forward some policy suggestions to increase finance investment, strengthen social security fee collection management system, expand the coverage, optimize the structure of expenditures, and ensure steady growth of social security expenditure.