美国OASDI年度报告技术解读与启示

Technical Characteristics and Implication of OASDI Report

在中国,关于养老保险体系的可持续性和稳健性一直没有统一的标准和权威的评估报告,而每年发布一次的具有悠久历史的美国联邦社会保险信托基金年度报告(OASDI报告)提供了非常权威的范例。以2014年的OASDI报告为基础,本文对OASDI报告进行了技术上的解读,特别是对其人口、经济和系统参数假设与随机性方法进行了详细的介绍,并在此基础上探讨了OASDI报告对我国研制同类报告的启示。

In China, there is no report about the sustainability and robustness of social pension insurance system. The Annual report of the Board of Trustees of the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Disability Insurance Trust Funds （OASDI report）provides an authoritative paradigm. In this paper, we investigate technical characteristic of the OASDI report. We mainly focus on the demographic, economic, and program-specific assumptions and stochastic methods of the OASDI report. Then we discuss the possible enlightenments to China＇ s social pension insurance system.