上海市工伤保险基金运行风险研究

The Study on the Operational Risk of the Industrial Injury Insurance Fund in Shanghai

通过预测未来各年份的上海市社会平均工资、全国城镇居民人均可支配收入、工伤保险参保人数、一到四级、五到六级、七到十级伤残的人数、因公死亡的人数等,对上海市"十二五"末期和整个"十三五"期间的工伤保险基金的收入、支出和结余进行预测。结果显示,上海市的工伤保险基金在"十三五"期间会出现工伤保险基金支出大于收入的情况,并且收支不平衡的差距有进一步扩大的趋势。因此,有关方面应该对工伤保险基金进行多样化投资,增加工伤预防和康复方面费用。

This paper is based on the predictions of social average wage in Shanghai, per capita disposable income of urban residents, insured population, the number of disabled people of different levels, the number of death and so on. The paper forecasts the fund＇s income, expenditure and balance from 2014 to 2020 in Shanghai. The Conclusions show that：Shanghai injury insurance fund will appear expenditure over income during the ＂ Thirteen Five＂. The gap between income and expenditure is further expanded. Therefore, the authorities should invest fund and increase the costs about prevention and rehabilitation.